Bitcoin’s recent rally brought forward a lot of theories that speculate what its next move will be. Considering the recent rally, there are two theories on how Bitcoin might move, which are explained below.
The previous article detailed the long-term price action for Bitcoin and the top of the next bull run.
Theory 1: Symmetrical Triangle
Bitcoin’s recent price spike is among a set of rallies that follow a specific pattern where the price briefly touched the $4,000 mark and dipped under. The pattern formed is called Symmetrical Triangle and it is a continuation pattern [or an extension of an existing trend].
The prices are currently trying to get back up, but they face massive resistance at this level [$4,000 level]. Bitcoin was priced at $3,922 at press time, and the market cap was at $69 billion. The overall market cap of all the cryptocurrencies has definitely seen an increase due to the recent rally.
The downtrend, which is a red-line, shows how the prices have been forming lower highs since early 2018, which is the first resistance that Bitcoin has to cross.
The second resistance line being the white trend line of the symmetrical triangle, seen in the chart. The third resistance line is the 0.236 [26.6%] line of the Fibonacci retracement, which fits perfectly as the current price candles are hitting this line. These resistances together form a massive resistance which BTC has to overcome to indicate a probability of a bull run and the prices reaching $4,500-$5,000 range.
The 100-Day moving average shows that every time the price of Bitcoin went into a rally and crossed it, the prices corrected and came back below it. Considering how the price of Bitcoin went above the 100-day moving average and the massive resistance mentioned above, there is a possibility that the price of Bitcoin could take a downslide.
Considering the weekly time frame for Bitcoin, it can be seen that the prices have already bounced off of the 200-weekly moving average seamlessly on December 10, and 17, 2019. Moreover, prominent traders in the stock markets, as well as the cryptocurrency markets, believe that Bitcoin’s major support is the 200-weekly moving average. If Bitcoin ever fails to cross the said resistance levels, it could just drop down and continue bouncing between the symmetrical triangle pattern.
However, if Bitcoin crosses the 200-weekly moving average, then all hell breaks loose and the price of Bitcoin would collapse, forming lower lows. [need to add a link to article 2]
Theory 2: Bullish Pennant
The second theory shows the formation of a bullish pennant, the characteristics of which are similar to the symmetrical triangle but are bullish in nature.
Bullish pennants are similar to bull flags, as it has a similar structure, like the flag pole and a pennant. The breakout, according to the definition, should happen in the direction of the prior trend, which was a short bullish rally. The length of the breakout is usually the same length as the prior rally leading to the formation of the pennant.
As seen in the chart below it can be confirmed that there was a spike of 9.63% which was followed by the formation of a pennant. Considering that the price breaks out at the current price, the price of Bitcoin might reach as high as $4,300.
Fibonacci Retracement shows that, if the price of Bitcoin breaks above, the price has space to move until $4,434, which is close to the above confirmation. The bullish pennant formed is enclosed in a falling wedge, which was first formed on November 19, 2018.
The prices are still at the strong resistance level mentioned in Theory 1. However, if the price decides to break this, Bitcoin will see $4,500 or $5,000 first, which is the bullish outcome. The bearish outcome however, has two possibilities, the first being that the prices will detract from the short rally and go back to bouncing in the symmetrical triangle pattern. The second possibility is that the prices will break the 200-weekly moving average, which will signify a lot of sell pressure. This will take the prices below $3,000 range, forming new lows.
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