Bitcoin ( BTC ) has for the third time failed to make inroads into a key downtrend resistance zone, and is now stair-stepping down support/resistance (S/R) zones one by one.
BTC’s rejection, however, was bought up at the nexus of two lower supports, one being the next S/R zone around $3,850, and the uptrend support (green field).
This means the crypto is entering a final squeeze (shown below in blue) in the very short term: It will have to either enter the resistance zone, or break back down to one of several support levels lower.
This key downtrend, illustrated below, harkens all the way back from early 2018, and rebuffed Bitcoin’s attempts to break out of the bear market several times – stopping the crypto cold each time (on the linear chart).
Thus, breaking into this zone here would be an important milestone in the crypto’s progress out of 2018(-19?) bear market.
On the whole, a break below the local uptrend shown on the first chart would not be disastrous. Bitcoin, and the entire cryptoasset market, have had by all accounts a fantastic couple of months, respecting a local uptrend begun in early February – with most dips quickly bought up like clockwork (blue circles, below).
Falling below this local resistance, there would be several S/R zones ready to catch the crypto’s fall (purple rectangles, below). Respect of any of these zones could take Bitcoin sideways for another attempt at the downtrend resistance.
Ultimately, Bitcoin can maintain its regional uptrend if it merely stays above the $3,500’s. Another squeeze zone between regional uptrend support and downtrend resistance awaits in April.
On the very long term, it is likely that Bitcoin has formed an ascending triangle. If this is the case, the bottom put in on about 13 December would form Bitcoin’s lowest price for the entire 2018-19 market cycle. Only a maintenance of at least $3,500 would uphold the ascending triangle pattern – and only a break of this level would be cause for major concern for 2019. If Bitcoin stays in the triangle long enough, it should eventually break to the upside, as the pattern is bullish.