Interesting bitcoin halving prediction from 2015

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It can be interesting to take a look back in history at former predictions and sentiment. One bitcoin YouTuber seems to have correctly called the 2017 bull market, but his prediction came a tad early.

YouTuber Contrarian Dude posted a video on October 12th 2015, talking about a coming bull market for bitcoin. Contrarian Dude titled the video, “Bitcoin Prediction: June 2016 will begin the next big bubble. Massive profits await bitcoiners.” According to the charts, this forecast does not appear too far off.

Where the numbers stack up

According to the Bitstamp weekly bitcoin chart below, Contrarian Dude does not appear to have been too far off on his prediction.

Image Courtesy: TradingView.com

The YouTuber started off his video explaining his thoughts on a misconception that the “Cyprus banking crisis” caused the 2013 bitcoin bubble. He continued to state, “What did cause that bubble is exactly the same thing that’s going to cause another huge run up in price, and bubble, and pop in 2016.”

Contrarian Dude went on to reference key dates and bitcoin prices, showing a seeming lack of correlation between 2013 bitcoin price gains and the “Cypriot financial crisis,” as shown in the video from Wikipedia.

Bitcoin halving

The YouTuber then went on to express his stance that the bitcoin halving was the true reason for the price run-up. Referencing a BTC clock source (pictured below), he noted the bitcoin halving from December 3, 2012 resulted in a mining block reward of 25 bitcoin, decreased from the previous 50 bitcoin reward.

Image Courtesy: YouTube (Contrarian Dude)

Contrarian Dude went on to discuss bitcoin’s supply and demand in relation to its price. Referencing the 2012 bitcoin halving, the YouTuber explained that bitcoin’s steady supply increase was cut in half, while demand for the asset stayed the same, leading the public to “bid up” BTC’s price in response. He continued, “That started the wave of the bubble that happened.”

Image Courtesy: TradingView.com

The analyst pointed toward bitcoin’s price action on the charts, noting a spike up in price after the stated 2012 halving.

Looking toward the 2016 halving, the YouTuber predicted a similar reaction might occur if demand also did not cut in half around the same time. He continued, “I think it will be the start of another big, massive bubble. We’re going to blast through the all-time high of $1,200 per bitcoin.” He added, “Then, of course, it will have the traditional crash and burn or pullback, probably 50-80% from that.”

He also added the concept that people might see the exuberance coming on the horizon, and bid up bitcoin’s price in anticipation during the first three quarters of 2016.

What has happened since the video

On July 9, 2016, TechCrunch released an article around the time of the 2016 bitcoin halving.

Image Courtesy: TradingView.com

At a price of $640 per bitcoin, a July 7, 2016 CoinDesk report noted bitcoin had risen 50% in price from the start of 2016. However, those gains are not even close to the exuberant gains seen in 2017, which might be closer to what Contrarian Dude might have been referencing when he made his video.

Still, his projection of such an exuberant bubble, and bubble popping, did occur – only later than expected.

With bitcoin’s expected 2020 halving on the horizon, similar bullish sentiment exists now. Only time will tell the outcome.

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