Bitcoin (BTC) was initially intended to be a form of electronic cash, but for many it has evolved into the equivalent of digital gold, valuable for its store of value properties rather than its transacting capabilities.
In agreeance with this take on Bitcoin is Mike Novogratz, a major Bitcoin bull and founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, an institutional crypto investment firm.
“Gold’s got… a $7.5 trillion market cap. And so, we’re 100x off on that. We’re not going to get there in Bitcoin in the next year or two. But over a 20-year period, could that happen? Easily. Easily. And that’s giving zero optionality to all the other stuff. And so I think it seems like a pretty smart portfolio bet.”
Can Bitcoin Easily Surpass Gold’s Market Cap?
Novogratz has made lofty Bitcoin predictions in the past that have failed to come true. Bearing that in mind, is his most recent prediction of Bitcoin surpassing gold’s $7.5 trillion market cap in the next 20 years realistic?
Asking this question was the prominent crypto analyst, Dave the Wave, who’s known for his long-term macro-analysis on Bitcoin’s price. Upon hearing of Novogratz’s prediction, the analyst took to Twitter to share an analysis of Bitcoin’s long-term logarithmic growth chart to see if this prediction is feasible.
Yes, according to the curve…. pic.twitter.com/TxyzgMQ4tt
— dave the wave (@davthewave) March 25, 2019
As seen from the tweet and chart above, a $7.5 trillion market cap for Bitcoin in in20 years is totally possible if Bitcoin continues its logarithmic growth trajectory.
Also seen from the chart, Bitcoin can expect to peak around the year 2045, where it will then become stabilized and more feasible as a currency due to decreased volatility.
As for Bitcoin’s price, if it surpasses gold’s $7.5 trillion market cap (assuming all bitcoins have been mined in 20 years), then you take gold’s $7.5 trillion market cap and divide it by the total number of bitcoins in circulation (21 million), which puts the BTC price at $350,000.
Institutional Players Are Entering the Crypto Space
Apart from Bitcoin’s macro price predictions, Novogratz also spoke about what’s happening in the crypto space in the short term. He reiterated what he’s said time and time again, that institutional players are entering the crypto space, adding:
“I know Goldman for instance is gearing up around securities tokens. They’re not doing anything yet, but they’re getting really ready and looking at all the questions on – where would you store them? Do you have to build your own custody, or can you use someone else’s custody? How to get them to work.”
Adding to this, Novogratz said that the regulatory framework on security tokens isn’t there yet but it will come. He further stated that his crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital is currently working very hard on their security token business and have some really cool things ready to be released.
As for other digital asset businesses, Novogratz says they’re right around the corner and will contribute to the macro case for Bitcoin. He then recommended that listeners should put at least a small percentage of their portfolio into Bitcoin, as it may be going up soon.
“I think the macro case for [Bitcoin] is pretty strong. And so, if you can put a couple percent of your portfolio in, there’s a decent chance it catches wind. Fidelity is just getting set up. Bakkt continues to get delayed a little bit, but it’s not going to be delayed forever. They’re going to be in the game. And there’s lots of other players coming.”
Do you think Bitcoin will surpass gold’s market cap? If yes, will it take 20 years or get there faster? Let us know what you think in the comment section below.