Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee spoke to CNBC Futures Now and outlined his views on Bitcoin and the bear market. He also explained how Bitcoin’s fundamentals and technicals improved recently.
“Last year was a terrible year for crypto… We published a piece that highlighting 11 signs that historically only take place in a bull market and the evidence is now saying that it is a bull market.”
Highlighting some of those 11 signs, Lee added that on-chain transaction volumes turned positive on a yearly basis in late January, with the price of Bitcoin moving above the 200-daily moving average, which had not happened in 13 months. He also mentioned the survey of OTC markets, stating that “universally they’ve topped a 60-70% increase in activity level” and their “trading per client was increasing”.
Additionally, Lee said that it was also important for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to be adopted by users and that the signs didn’t solely depend on institutions showing interest in it. He further stated that events taking place out of the US, like the devaluation of Turkey’s Lira or the inflation problem in Venezuela, propelled on-chain transactions for Bitcoin.
Lee added that these countries caused a “30% increase” in transaction volumes, stating that this was meaningful. He further said,
“Until crypto is part of the existing financial of system and sort of used every day, it’s going to be a speculative asset.”
Speaking about altcoins like Litecoin and XRP not joining the rally, Lee said,
“If you look at the altcoins, we tracked the correlation between them and typically what happens is that Bitcoin will rally and in correlations altcoins will drop, because altcoins aren’t tracking it, but that’s the setup and what we call the ‘next altcoin season’…. altcoins typically follow once there is big move in Bitcoin.”
He also added that Bitcoin had a high correlation with EM [Emerging Markets] equities, stating that it made the latter a risky asset. Lee concluded by stating that Bitcoin was currently in a negative correlation with the S&P 500.
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